The year 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal one for the tech industry. Big Tech, once the dominant force in the sector, is facing a slew of challenges that may ultimately lead to its downfall. Opposing political parties, mainstream pundits, and even some tech titans are uniting to defend what they call “little tech” against the power and influence of the incumbents.
One of the main reasons why Big Tech is on the brink of failure is its heavy investment in the AI business, which is now losing steam. Major players like Goldman Sachs and Sequoia Capital have expressed concerns about the billions of dollars needed to develop and deploy large-scale AI systems, as well as the poor market fit and low returns associated with the AI business model.
The repercussions of Big Tech’s economic model are becoming increasingly evident. Issues like centralization, surveillance, and control over information are raising red flags among the general public and policymakers alike. The recent CrowdStrike outage, caused by Microsoft’s corner-cutting, crippled critical infrastructure such as hospitals, banks, and transportation systems on a global scale.
Moreover, the growing awareness of AI’s reliance on sensitive data and its implications for privacy is also working against Big Tech. Platforms like Signal, which prioritize user privacy, have seen significant growth in recent years. Microsoft’s introduction of Recall, a feature that captures users’ activities on their devices to create a “perfect memory,” has raised concerns about the invasion of privacy and the potential misuse of sensitive information.
However, the decline of Big Tech is not only driven by its own missteps but also by the rise of alternatives that prioritize democratic, transparent, and independent tech solutions. Open source developers, governance researchers, and experts in tech sector political economics are coming together in Europe to explore the possibilities of creating autonomous core tech infrastructure.
In addition, a new wave of tech investors is emerging, who are critical of the monopolistic tendencies of Big Tech and are eager to invest in innovative solutions that resist surveillance and social control. Some investors are even exploring new financing models that blend traditional venture capital incentives with a commitment to supporting open, nonprofit tech infrastructure.
Furthermore, there is a growing recognition among policymakers that state capital can play a crucial role in supporting alternative tech solutions. Initiatives like Germany’s Sovereign Tech Fund, which distributes state funds to key open source infrastructures while ensuring autonomy and transparency in administration, are gaining traction as potential models for nurturing a more diverse and innovative tech ecosystem.
As Big Tech crumbles, a new era of tech innovation may be on the horizon. The demise of the incumbents could pave the way for a more collaborative, creative, and ethical tech industry, where the focus is on benefiting society rather than maximizing profits and control. The time is ripe for a paradigm shift in the tech sector, one that prioritizes openness, innovation, and inclusivity. Let’s seize this opportunity to create a tech ecosystem that serves the needs of all, not just the interests of a few.
